Skip to main content

The 2023 Grammy Awards will honor the best music of  2022 during the ceremony on Feb. 5, 2023. The Best Rock Album category contains some strong contenders with a mix of well-known artists (Elvis Costello and Ozzy Osbourne) and relative newcomers (Idles, Machine Gun Kelly). Which artists will walk away with the Grammy? It comes down to two artists, and we predict The Black Keys will win the category.

Dan Auerbach and Patrick Carney of The Black Keys walk on stage after they win for Best Rock Album at the 2013 Grammy Awards.
(l-r) Dan Auerbach and Patrick Carney of The Black Keys | Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic

The six records nominated for Best Rock Album at the 2023 Grammys

The six records in the running for Best Rock Album contain a fairly diverse assortment of styles under the rock umbrella. The half-dozen bands are a mix of well-established rock ‘n’ roll veterans and more fresh-faced groups:

  • Dropout Boogie by The Black Keys
  • The Boy Named If by Elvis Costello and the Impersonators
  • Crawler by Idles
  • Mainstream Sellout by Machine Gun Kelly
  • Patient Number 9 by Ozzy Osbourne
  • Lucifer on the Sofa by Spoon

Costello and Osbourne have been making music for decades. They have four Grammys between them (Ozzy owns three, and Costello has one). The Black Keys and Spoon started their careers as indie rock stars (Spoon still records for indie label Matador). MGK and Idles are more recent artists to win over music fans.

Three artists with little chance to win: Machine Gun Kelly, Ozzy Osbourne, and Idles 

Let’s toss aside the three pretenders in the Best Rock Album category at the 2023 Grammys before we predict the winner. 

  • For all of Machine Gun Kelly’s popular appeal, Mainstream Sellout doesn’t do anything collaborator Travis Barker didn’t already do two decades ago in Blink-192. The only difference is MGK does it worse. The songs evaporate almost as soon as the album ends. 
  • Best Rock Album might not be the category for Ozzy Osbourne. He’s nominated for Best Metal Song and Best Rock Song. The voters could skip him here and still reward him elsewhere for work that holds up with some of the best of his solo career.
  • Idles’ Crawler is neck-and-neck with Patient Number 9 for heaviest album in the category. It might be the most challenging, too. The at-times graphic imagery of the lyrics — a semi-autobiographical look into singer Joe Talbot’s depths of addiction and brutal car crash, per Pitchfork — make for difficult listening. The music, which sways between post-punk, sound experiments (“Progress”), and New Order-esque new wave — might not sit firmly enough in rock to win for Best Rock Album.

That leaves us with Spoon, Elvis Costello, and The Black Keys. Even with three worthy frontrunners, Best Rock Album will go to The Black Keys.

The Black Keys will win Best Rock Album at the 2023 Grammys over Spoon and Elvis Costello

Spoon deserves some recognition for nearly three decades of consistency, but history works against them. The band is a first-time nominee; only five Grammy newcomers have won for Best Rock Album.

Costello delivered an energetic album nearly 50 years into his career with The Boy Named If. But the recording academy handed him a Grammy in 2019. The recency of his award could sway some voters to go in another direction. 

That leaves The Black Keys. Dan Auerbach and Patrick Carney haven’t been nominated in the Best Rock Album category since 2014, and they haven’t won since 2012 for El Camino. Besides the gap between Grammys, the duo turned in one of their best records. It’s consistently hooky and well-played, and after you progress past lead single “Wild Child” and the neo-soul of “It Ain’t Over,” you land at the doorstep of what made the band so popular in the first place — ragged blues licks played with passion.

We’re not the only ones who believe The Black Keys have Best Rock Album locked up. GoldDerby has Dropout Boogie at 6/1 odds to win, just ahead of Ozzy at 13/2. A win in the category would give them their fifth Grammy, and they could add another for Best Rock Performance for “Wild Child.”

How to watch the show

Related

Grammys 2023: Here Are the Performers Vying for Best New Artist

The Grammy Awards are a live event, so the iconic performances and winners strolling across the stage happen in real-time.

Before the award show, E! News will broadcast the red carpet for the Grammy Awards. Viewers must check with their cable or satellite provider to see if their plan includes the E! Network.

The 2023 Grammy Awards will begin at 8 p.m. ET. The easiest way to watch the music award show is through the main broadcast on CBS, which is available through most cable and satellite plans. Alternatively, the 2023 Grammy Awards will also stream on Paramount+. Plans for Paramount+ start at $4.99 per month, and new subscribers get a seven-day free trial.

For more on the entertainment world and exclusive interviews, subscribe to Showbiz Cheat Sheet’s YouTube channel.

Best in Music