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The 94th Academy Awards air on ABC on March 27, 2022. And this year’s crop of nominees are an intriguing mix. In addition to welcoming some new talent to the Oscars, the 2022 show marks the return of many familiar names and faces. The Best Director category in particular features an interesting blend, including a rematch nearly 30 years in the making. Let’s take a look at the Best Director contenders, ranked worst to best.

Steven Spielberg smiles and poses on the red carpet
Steven Spielberg | VALERIE MACON/AFP

5) Kenneth Branagh, ‘Belfast’

Early on during awards season, Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast felt like a strong contender for many of the top prizes at the 2022 Oscars. The coming-of-age drama is clearly among the most personal projects he has directed. And indeed, Belfast‘s seven nominations made Branagh the first person to be nominated in seven different categories.

But as time has gone on, Belfast‘s Oscar chances have dwindled. What seemed like universal acclaim has faded into more gentle praise. And now it’s likely not only that Branagh will lose the Best Director trophy, but Belfast will probably go home empty-handed altogether. Though the film has its fans, its Oscar moment might have passed.

4) Ryusuke Hamaguchi, ‘Drive My Car’

In recent years, the Academy Awards have faced criticism for its lack of diversity. Efforts to recognize a broader range of talent have seemingly begun to pay off, however. Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s nomination for the Academy Award for Best Director — only the third Japanese filmmaker in the category’s history — is a testament to that.

Drive My Car has consistently earned praise as one of 2021’s best movies. As such, its inclusion in four categories is a major win. However, Hamaguchi’s nod for directing the three-hour drama might be the most impressive. After all, Best Picture now carries 10 slots, while Best Director has five. The fact that Hamaguchi made the list is itself a win.

3) Paul Thomas Anderson, ‘Licorice Pizza’

Paul Thomas Anderson stands as one of critics’ favorite filmmakers. And films like Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, and Phantom Thread have made him a perennial Oscar nominee. But he still hasn’t won an Academy Award yet. In 2022, Licorice Pizza made him a triple nominee for producing, writing, and directing.

As much as long Anderson fans would love to see him take the Best Director 2022 statue, it’s not likely to happen. The movie earned near-universal acclaim and three nominations. But it doesn’t have the same level of support that two other nominated directors have. Anderson has a better chance at winning Best Original Screenplay at this point.

2) Steven Spielberg, ‘West Side Story’

Remaking a classic is rarely a good idea. 1961’s West Side Story is among the most popular movie musicals of all time and a Best Picture winner itself. So there were infinite ways a remake could have gone wrong. And if Steven Spielberg wasn’t behind the camera, it very well might have. But the two-time Best Director winner had a vision.

For decades, Spielberg talked of one day trying his hand at a musical. And by all accounts, West Side Story delivers. Although the movie wasn’t a box office success, many consider it to be one of Spielberg’s best movies in many years. And indeed, he remains the unexpected dark horse to snag the Best Director trophy from the frontrunner.

1) Jane Campion, ‘The Power of the Dog’

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Jane Campion’s first Best Director nod came in 1994 for The Piano. She lost that award to none other than Spielberg. But now the two filmmakers are facing off for the first time since. And the outcome will likely be very different. With The Power of the Dog, Campion becomes the first female filmmaker to receive more than one nod.

As the Oscar races wind down, The Power of the Dog‘s shot at Best Picture has suffered a bit. But Campion remains an easy winner to call for Best Director. If she somehow doesn’t win, it will be the night’s biggest shocker. So at least Oscar fans putting together their own predictions know what box to check off for this category.