Oscars 2022: Why ‘Dune’ Should Be a Serious Contender for Best Picture (But Probably Won’t Win)
When the 2022 Oscars air on March 27, viewers will hear a few movie titles mentioned more than others. Dune will be among them.
Denis Villeneuve’s well-received sci-fi epic racked up 10 nominations, including adapted screenplay and best picture. It has stiff competition to win the latter category, but it wouldn’t be among the 10 finalists at the Academy Awards if it weren’t a serious contender. The academy snubbed Dune in the prestige categories, and though it has a shot to win for best picture, its chances are probably about as good as an unprepared spice harvester vs. a sandworm.
The academy snubbed Dune in the best director and acting categories
When the academy revealed its nominees for the 2022 Oscars, Dune received its fair share of nods. It’s among the 10 films vying for best picture, and it’s up for statues in nine other categories:
- Cinematography
- Makeup
- Costume design
- Film editing
- Production design
- Music (original score)
- Sound
- Visual effects
- Adapted screenplay
However, the nominations didn’t come in any of the prestige categories. Villeneuve isn’t in the race for best director, Timothée Chalamet is nowhere among the best actors, and Rebecca Ferguson and Zendaya are both shut out in the actress categories.
Villeneuve not earning a nomination for directing is befuddling, and in a perfect world, Dune probably should be on the shortlist to win best picture. Here’s why.
Why Dune should be a serious contender to win best picture at the Oscars
Writers, producers, directors, and film studios have tried several times to bring author Frank Herbert’s Dune to the big screen. Most of those attempts have been unsuccessful or underwhelming. The source material is layered, the world-building is thorough, and the interweaving themes are complex.
It’s not an easy book to turn into a movie.
Alejandro Jodorowsky had grand plans in the 1970s for an epic production, a soundtrack scored by Pink Floyd, and an hours-long run time. It never got past planning and remains one of the greatest movies never made.
Director David Lynch shepherded his version to the big screen in 1984, but the theatrical release met with mixed reviews. The movie made $30.9 million at the box office against a $40 million budget.
A pair of TV miniseries in the early 2000s came closer to matching Herbert’s vision, but the special effects couldn’t match a big-budget production.
Villeneuve deserves credit for creating a successful version of Dune that can make money ($400 million box office and counting) hold its own among the best films of 2021.
He filmed desert scenes on location in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The production also traversed Europe and traveled to Norway for live shots. Between the story’s complexity and the unpredictability of on-location shooting, it’s a marvel that Villeneuve brought Dune to the big screen at all and even found himself at peace doing so.
Dune has a lot going for it, but probably not enough to win best picture.
The odds are against the sci-fi epic winning best picture
When it comes to the Academy Awards, sci-fi movies don’t usually compete for best picture, so the odds are already stacked against Dune.
Sci-fi movies such as Star Wars, E.T., Avatar, District 9, Inception, and Villeneuve’s Arrival have earned best picture nominations, but none have won.
The rea-life odds are also not in Dune’s favor. According to Vegas Insider, it’s firmly in the middle of the pack when it comes to the odds. The Power of the Dog sits at -155 (bet $155 to win $100), with CODA the closest competitor at +130. Dune sits with +5,000 odds.
With 10 total nominations, it’s unlikely Dune walks away from the Oscars empty-handed, but a best picture win appears to be a longshot.
Box office figures courtesy of Box Office Mojo. Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider as of March 23, 2022.
