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In Hollywood, an awards show isn’t simply one group’s chance to recognize what they consider the best in film. It’s part of a much larger tapestry known as award season, culminating in the Academy Awards. So while the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards handed out their 2022 trophies, many are already looking at how each win could change the Oscar race. Here are the four actors who won SAG Awards and whether this is the Oscar-winning line-up too.

Oscar statues on display
Oscar statues on display | Andrew H. Walker

These 4 actors went home as SAG Award winners

Going into the SAG Awards, there was a pretty strong indication who the frontrunners were in the major categories. The ceremony has six categories recognizing film, including one for outstanding cast and one for stunt ensemble. CODA and No Time to Die took those awards home, respectively. And just as CODA‘s win shocked viewers, the four acting winners ran the gamut from preordained to complete surprises.

As predicted, Will Smith won Male Actor in a Leading Role for King Richard. Going in, Smith was the odds-on favorite, as was Female Actor in a Supporting Role winner Ariana DeBose for West Side Story. However, the other two winners were bigger surprises. Troy Kotsur won Male Actor in a Supporting Role for CODA. And Jessica Chastain triumphed in the Female Actor in a Leading Role category for The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Are these same stars destined to become Oscar winners?

Now that the SAG Awards winners have been announced, the big question is which of these four actors will go on to win the corresponding Oscars. According to Gold Derby — which tracks awards season odds and predictions — the SAG Award winners match the Oscars roughly 75 percent of the time. While this report is a couple of years old, it still holds mostly true. In 2021, two of the four acting winners won Oscars. And the previous year, all four matched.

Of course, the latter scenario has only happened eight times in the 27-year history of the SAG Awards. That means there’s plenty of chances for one or more of this year’s winners to miss out on Oscar gold. If anything, their wins might steer things somewhat in their favor because it will draw further attention to their performances. And in the case of Smith and DeBose, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress races might be pretty well sewn-up by now.

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The 2022 Oscars could bring some big surprises

The other half of the acting categories present the opportunity for wild cards. Gold Derby still predicts Olivia Colman for Best Actress, followed by Nicole Kidman and then Chastain. But the SAG Awards — and the unexpected inclusion of Kristen Stewart, presumably at the expense of Lady Gaga — make this the most difficult acting category to call. Chastain is the only past nominee in the race who has never won. And it’s easy to see some feeling it’s time.

But while Best Actress seems like a free-for-all, Best Supporting Actor has developed a laser-focus on just two contenders. Smit-McPhee remains the Gold Derby choice for the win. But the late surge for Kotsur and CODA in general could mean a surprise is in store. Generally, younger stars — Smit-McPhee is 25, while Kotsur is 53 — are less frequently rewarded than veterans of the business. But it’s anyone’s guess which way this race will go.

The 94th Academy Awards airs on ABC on March 27, 2022.

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