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To most viewers, the 2022 SAG Awards are probably just like any other awards show. After all, Hollywood in general has a bunch of these ceremonies in the fall and spring of every year. But Oscar pundits actually consider the SAG Awards often a key indicator of which stars will be making their way to the stage on Oscar night. If that’s the case, then movie fans might want to adjust their Oscar ballots, as the SAG Awards featured a huge surprise win.

A Screen Actors Guild statue
A Screen Actors Guild statue | Frazer Harrison

The SAG Awards often predict the Oscar winners

Historically, the SAG Awards don’t provide a perfect match for what will win the Oscars. However, there is often a strong correlation. Roughly 75 percent of the actors who win SAG Awards go on to earn the Academy Awards. But in eight cases over the SAG Awards’ 27-year history, the exact same actors went on to become Oscar winners.

In Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, the correlation is equally dicey. Only four of the SAG Awards winners in the past decade — Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, and Parasite — became Best Picture winners. So it’s unclear how much bearing the SAG Awards will have on Hollywood’s biggest night. But it bodes well for one movie.

This surprise win just changed a key Oscar race

Ahead of the 28th SAG Awards, most awards season pundits assumed Belfast would win the cast award. After all, several of the film’s actors received critical praise for their performances. And the award seemed like the perfect way to recognize the ensemble. Plus, with Belfast rivaling The Power of the Dog for Best Picture, its SAG Awards victory felt like an easy way to nudge that movie a bit closer to claiming the Best Picture trophy.

Alas, the SAG Awards had something very different in mind. The star-studded casts of Belfast, Don’t Look Up, House of Gucci, and King Richard fell to the Apple TV+ release CODA. Sian Heder’s comedy-drama about a child of deaf adults (CODA) — played by Emilia Jones — shocked audiences by breaking barriers for the deaf community. And now its SAG Awards win arguably position it ahead of Belfast in the Best Picture race.

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Can ‘CODA’ actually win Best Picture over ‘The Power of the Dog’?

Still, Netflix’s The Power of the Dog seems fairly unstoppable at this point. Jane Campion’s Western drama leads the 2022 Oscar nominees with 12 nods, including four for its stars. It remains the frontrunner for both Best Picture and Best Director — for which Campion would be only the third female to win — but CODA‘s SAG Awards wins could still radically shift Oscar’s plans.

Even if The Power of the Dog still takes the top prize, all of the love for CODA could come to bear in the Best Supporting Actor race. For a while, pundits have called out Troy Kotsur’s dark horse status. And his SAG Award win could potentially give him the edge over The Power of the Dog star Kodi Smit-McPhee. In any case, Belfast‘s chance at going home empty-handed on Oscar night just went up.

The 94th Academy Awards airs on ABC on March 27, 2022.

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