Where Is ‘The White Lotus’ Going Next? Odds Point to Egypt — and a Possible Mossbacher Reunion
The guessing game for The White Lotus Season 4 is officially underway, and the odds are in. While creator Mike White remains characteristically tight-lipped about the upcoming installment of HBO’s darkly satirical anthology, Vegas-style betting odds have given a glimpse into where the next exotic (and emotionally volatile) getaway might be — and who might be checking in.
‘The White Lotus’ Season 4: Egypt leads the pack
According to betting odds data from VegasInsider.com, Cairo, Egypt is the clear frontrunner to host the chaos of The White Lotus Season 4, with odds of -150, translating to a 60% implied probability. The North African metropolis offers a tantalizing mix of ancient wonders, modern luxury, and cultural complexity — the perfect backdrop for The White Lotus’ signature cocktail of class tensions, moral ambiguity, and looming disaster.
Plus, Mike White indicated he’s interested in moving away from the “crashing waves” aesthetic of the previous three seasons. A move to Egypt would certainly give season 4 a different vibe.
Hot on Cairo’s heels is the French Riviera at +122 (45%). With its sun-drenched opulence and history of scandal, it feels tailor-made for the show’s aesthetic — think yachts, old money, and casual betrayals over chilled rosé.
Rumors have suggested a return to Europe for The White Lotus Season 4. Perhaps the Riviera’s appeal will be too strong for White to pass up and force him to abandon plans to move inland.
Rounding out the top contenders are Costa Rica (+150, 40%) with its lush jungles and eco-luxury appeal, and long-shot locations like Mauritius and Los Cabos, Mexico (both at +400, 20%), which could offer stunning visuals and new cultural tensions to explore. The real curveball? Norway at +9900 — a cold but intriguing wildcard with just a 1% chance.
| Location | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Cairo, Egypt | -150 | 60% |
| French Riviera | +122 | 45% |
| Costa Rica | +150 | 40% |
| Mauritius | +400 | 20% |
| Los Cabos, Mexico | +400 | 20% |
| Hampshire, UK | +500 | 16.7% |
| Athens, Greece | +900 | 10% |
| Mallorca, Spain | +900 | 10% |
| The Bahamas | +1900 | 5% |
| Norway | +9900 | 1% |
Which ‘White Lotus’ characters could return for season 4?
As always with The White Lotus, half the fun is watching new characters unravel under paradise’s pressure. But the series has a growing tradition of bringing back familiar faces, and the odds hint that some fan favorites might be booking a return trip.
Leading the potential comeback crew is Connie Britton, whose portrayal of high-powered businesswoman Nicole Mossbacher in season 1 could see a revival with +150 odds (40%). Could we see her navigating a new marriage crisis in Cairo?
Aubrey Plaza, fresh off her razor-sharp turn as Harper in season 2, is next most likely at +200 (33.3%). Harper’s simmering resentment and tightly-wound energy would be a welcome addition to any White Lotus ensemble.
Also in the mix are season 1’s dysfunctional honeymooners Rachel and Shane (Alexandra Daddario & Jake Lacy) at +400 (20%). After surviving the honeymoon from hell, could they make a surprise reappearance — perhaps with a divorce lawyer in tow?
The odds for a return from Sydney Sweeney’s Olivia and Theo James’s Cameron sit at +900 (10%) each, while Molly Shannon’s scene-stealing turn as Shane’s overbearing mother Kitty is a long shot at +1900 (5%).
| Actor | Character | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Connie Britton | Nicole Mossbacher | +150 | 40% |
| Aubrey Plaza | Harper Spiller | +200 | 33.3% |
| Alexandra Daddario and Jake Lacy | Rachel and Shane Patton | +400 | 20% |
| Sydney Sweeney | Olivia Mossbacher | +900 | 10% |
| Theo James | Cameron Sullivan | +900 | 10% |
| Molly Shannon | Kitty Patton | +1900 | 5% |
While nothing is confirmed, the odds suggest The White Lotus Season 4 may blend familiar drama with unfamiliar landscapes. With Egypt’s strong lead in location odds and Connie Britton’s potential return, we might see the Mossbacher family back in the spotlight — perhaps even with Olivia and Harper adding fresh tension.
